Scenario Planning and Contingency Planning

Scenario planning is a technique used to learn about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting our future, so you can be prepared to succeed in a changing world. Read more.

The Difficulties of Thinking Ahead - Doing scenario planning requires some scenario planning of its own

By Kris Frieswick: Scenario planning is an especially important tool for CFOs, who can use it as an early-warning system to reduce resources in anticipation of tough times or to staff up to take advantage of pending opportunities. "It allows you to understand potential risks, such as discontinuities that could dramatically affect earnings," says Rick Eno, vice president in the global management consulting practice at Arthur D. Little in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The key, he says, is to identify "signposts" for each scenario: events or metrics that signal when a scenario is unfolding, such as a drop in the rate of adoption of a new technology or numerous debt defaults within a specific industry.

For Brokers: Take your future in hand with scenario planning

By CHRISTOPHER M. WRIGHT: Some real estate brokers are turning to a strategic planning process called scenario planning. Its aim: to ensure your business decisions hold up well in a changing environment

FROM SCENARIO THINKING TO STRATEGIC ACTION

By Ian Wilson: Strategic planning and scenario planning are useless, unless they can be translated into real adaptive actions in the real world. Here's how to do it.

Attuning to the Future - Visit four possible futures to better understand your own

By Robert Gilman: In this short article from Context Magazine the author is presenting a simple process using some scenario mechanisms to break open the perspectives on the future.

Change Project: Spinning the Future

By Joe Flower: Scenario planning overview that contains eight steps in the scenario spinning process.

Early Warnings - Business tsunamis are approaching. Learn how to prepare.

By Leonard Fuld: Leonard Fuld has written an article in Pharmaceutical Executive about scenarios and how to prepare for dramatic changes in industries.

Business Interruption Risk Assessment: A Multi-Disciplinary Approach

By Marion H. Long: Effective contingency planning and disaster recovery coordination require expertise in all aspects of disaster management, including avoidance and recovery. It is too late to plan an effective response after a disaster has struck and significant downtime has been incurred. The resulting outage from such a disaster can have serious effects on the viability of a firm's operations, profitability, quality of service, and convenience. In fact, these consequences may be more severe because of the lost time that results from inadequate planning. After such an event, it is typical for senior management to become concerned with all aspects of the occurrence, including the measures taken to limit losses.

The Contingency Planner

By Don Edwards: For many a contingency planner, the career began with no script, no procedures, no direction, no budget, not much pay, and most importantly, no staff! Many of us had to begin by selling the idea of a hot-site contract to senior level management; hundreds of thousands in cost per year with no visible payback! And after months of work justifying the hot-site, our next step was to develop a test plan and test at a hot- site or backup site.

Emergency and Business Continuity Planning for 'Avian' Flu

By Mark Tyler , Jessica Burt: One of the main concerns in any business continuity planning against an influenza pandemic will be the number of employees that may be estimated as likely to be absent from work at the peak of the pandemic. The level of staff absence from work during a pandemic will depend significantly on the nature of the pandemic virus when it emerges. Therefore, a company's business continuity plan should have the flexibility to accommodate these ranges.

Business Contingency Planning Is...

By Larry Herriot, CDRP: Business Contingency Planning continually confronts the unlikelihood of a disaster. An interruption could be something related to a winter storm, the loss of electricity to the general area, or the complete and inaccessibility of a facility for an extended period of time. The cause of the interruption doesn't matter, but I assert being capable of gaining management control of the interruption does.

JUSTIFYING THE CONTINGENCY PLAN

By John Watkins: For any CEO or CFO who thinks contingency planning is a waste of money, two incidents clearly point out the necessity of a well thought out recovery plan: the August 13, 1990 Wall Street blackout and the April 13, 1992 downtown Chicago flood. In the Wall Street outage 28 firms relocated to hotsites, and in the Chicago flood that number was still higher: 33 firms.

Bank Director Magazine - Contingency Planning: What to do When the Unexpected Happens

By na: Financial-related businesses performed admirably after our nation's most serious attack. But there's no such thing as being too prepared

Disaster Resource

By Bill Patterson: Ask most corporate executives about their plans for crisis management and chances are that many of them will say something like, "Sure, we've got a crisis plan. Harry, over in public relations, takes care of that." But, just what does Harry really have? Unfortunately, in many cases, it is just an emergency checklist with some phone numbers. What will Harry do when 50 pickets show up outside your company headquarters? What is Harry suppose to do when your top-selling product is recalled? What does Harry tell the news media when you have to close that old plant and lay off 900 people? If Harry does not know what to do immediately (and who will do it), then your crisis plan is in need of an overhaul.

Analyzing Your Options

By Joel Childs: The scenarios have become all too common: Your company's central data center in Chicago is being evacuated for at least three days due to a nearby hazardous chemical spill, and now you need to expedite backup tapes and computer equipment to a contingency site in Milwaukee ASAP. A flood has damaged paper copies of your vital customer files in Atlanta, and you need to ship them quickly and at a constant temperature so your service provider in Fort Worth can salvage the information through a freeze-drying process. You need to ensure that your shipment arrives at your customer's production facility by 6 a.m. the next day or face stiff penalties for each minute the product is late.

Helping Your Employees Prepare For Natural Disasters

By FEMA: Your employees are your most valuable assets. Helping them to protect their families and property will be your most important step in post-disaster recovery. The first step is to develop a plan based upon natural disasters that are likely in your region of the country.

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